May 15, 2020, 9:27 am1.2k pts
Will Joe Biden be able to unseat Donald Trump in the US presidential elections? Still months away, the election campaigns are already in full swing, with many arguing that Trump started campaigning way before his opposition even had a face. Now that we can see Biden and Trump selecting their battlefields, we have a better understanding of how the campaigns will play out and can try to foresee where each party will gain favor.
Despite everything that's made global news surrounding Donald Trump in the last four years, in the US, Biden is anything but a sure bet. In fact, the businesses that bank their living on predicting outcomes, the bookmakers, don't see Trump losing his support just yet. There's a long road ahead, but as it stands, Biden's efforts thus far aren't viewed as being enough to trump the president in November.
Trump has the stage and seemingly cannot be smeared
Donald Trump surged to office by being very loud, very bold, and making promises that he couldn't possibly keep. Now, he has an even grander podium that is shown across the country whenever he fancies holding a press conference – which is very often. With this stage, he can say whatever he wants, and people will listen to take it as truth. You only have to look as far as the uptick of poison hotline calls following Trump's out-loud thinking of injecting disinfectants to see the influence that he holds.
If the last four years of unorthodox actions and waves of controversies have proven anything, it's that the expectations of Trump are already either so low or so high that smearing is next-to-impossible as, until recently, he has still boasted a lofty approval rating. Much of Trump's self-hype has been based on the strength of the economy, and even though his claims have been grossly exaggerated, they seem to be resonating with his audience.
Even though he skilfully ducks important questions among other tactics, this approach has led to him being ahead in the outright markets. The odds on Donald Trump re-election success see him as the favorite when all is said and done. However, Joe Biden isn't too far behind, and if Trump's most important talking point, the economy, falls through, Biden could leap on the opportunity and beat the odds.
Is Biden's laying some hopeful groundwork
Trump has the stage and knows how to use it, Biden is, for all the right reasons, campaigning from home. Biden's lack of reach and widespread coverage, in comparison to Trump, will be seen by the bookies as a bad sign. However, the contender's focus has been in the right areas – particularly in dismissing Trump's claims about the economy – to put the Democrat in good standing if his opponent begins to weaken.
The president knows how important the state of the US economy is to his re-election, which is why he opted for a reopening instead of health care measures earlier this year. Should this backfire, and a national health crisis returns, the economy will, of course, sink, ringing the prudent echoes of Biden's campaign. At this time, it looks as though Biden is laying the foundations of a campaign based on the facts of a falling economy, effectively ready to lance Trump's primary selling point.
For now, Trump has the stage and the reach, setting an uphill battle for Biden, which the bookmakers recognize all too well. However, should the US economy enter an unconvincing state that even Trump can't plaster over, Biden may quickly gain favor in the odds.